Socioeconomic drivers of municipal solid waste generation: A PRISMA-guided systematic review

Abstract

The increasing incomes, a fast urbanization process, and changes in consumption behavior have increased the rate of production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), which provides growing burdens to sustainable urban governance. The proposed study is a PRISMA-based systematic review of published empirical studies on MSW, to be conducted from 2003 to 2023, investigating the socioeconomic determinants of MSW, including GDP per capita, population size, population density, urbanization, and population age (65+). A total of 51 high-quality studies, characterized by high quality and reproducibility, were synthesized in the context of high, middle, and low-income conditions. The results indicate that economic and demographic growth are the prevailing factors of waste production worldwide, and both GDP per capita and population size have positive and significant effects. Large heterogeneity in regional effects, population density, and age structure is also found in the review, resulting in mixed outcomes, but urbanization is not linear, with waste accelerating in the early stages and dying out under mature governance and infrastructure. Support of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is due to evidence of policy-induced decoupling in developed economies, which argues that sustainability and growth could co-exist where there is sound regulation. Although the evidence base is growing, the critical gaps in the research remain, such as a lack of longitudinal studies, the underrepresentation of developing economies, and the poor fit of policy and behavioural mediators. The research can be relevant to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 11 and SDG 12) and the EU Green Deal agenda as it presents an evidence map demonstrating the importance of regionally adaptive, data driven, and circular economy-oriented waste management practices.