Tourism, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions: granger evidence across ten MENA countries for a sustainable tomorrow

Abstract

Tourism serves a dual function in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) area, functioning as a catalyst for economic expansion while also increasing environmental challenges through increased carbon emissions. This region is still understudied in the relationship between tourism, economic growth, and environmental factors. The objective of this paper is to investigate the causal linkages between international tourist arrivals, per capita gross domestic product, and carbon dioxide emissions in MENA countries. The study encompasses ten MENA countries over the period 2010 to 2023, selected based on data availability. The Granger Causality test is used to indicate the direction and nature of causation of different variables. The findings reveal three distinct patterns in MENA countries: bidirectional relationships, unidirectional causation from one variable to another, and no causation relationship exists among international tourist arrivals, per capita gross domestic product, and carbon dioxide emissions. These variances are due to different economic structures, environmental challenges, and policy regimes in the countries. The evidence suggests regionally specific strategies (such as green infrastructure, clean energy technologies, and policies to protect the environment) are required to build sustainability in tourism development and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).